The Real Losers of the Election of 2009

The election of 2009 should have gone down in history as most off-year elections. Some governor seats, enough congressional seats to fill a bathroom stall, mayors, city counsel seats, education secretary ombudsman-liaison guy…

It was your standard issue odd-numbered year. Nothing seismic. Nothing that would form cracks in the earth’s crust.

By no means should it have been an event which should determine any life-changing course for either party. But as anything else political, it has been built up into what House Minority Whip Eric Cantor proclaimed a “great victory…a clear sign that we the people are fed up with the Obama, Pelosi, Kaine agenda.”

“A great victory.” It’s a meme which the media and even a lot of scared Democrats are buying hook, line and sinker. The instant experts are saying that incumbent Democrats should be very very concerned, and there’s a sweeping backlash against whatever it is Obama stands for. (The media sure doesn’t seem to know what that is.).

Even MSNBC’s top four take-aways were:

1. Democrats lost the indies.
2. The Democratic base has given up.
3. Incumbents should be scared.
4. Infighting is bad

Looks pretty bad for the Democrats now, huh? If only any of this wasn’t so laughably far from the truth.

Let’s look at what CNN called “a big night for the GOP.”

Virginia: Bob McDonnell had a decisive win over Democrat Creigh Deeds. By all accounts, McDonnell ran a very high-minded campaign, not unlike that of Barack Obama last year. Hell, McDonnell’s website looks remarkably like Obama’s. Secondly, Virginia is uncanny at electing governors of the opposite party of whichever president won the previous year. It happened in the three previous presidents and it happened last night.

Then there’s New Jersey. No carbon-based life form could have lost to the abysmal Jon Corzine. He lost this election long before this year even started. The GOP could have put Toucan Sam from the Froot Loops box on the ticket and won. The fact that Chris Christie had such a hard time down the stretch is in itself remarkable, and a clear indication that the certainty of a GOP earthquake is practically nil.

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Which brings us to New York’s 23rd congressional district.

With the seat vacated by John McHugh, the Republican who accepted the job as Secretary of the Army under Obama, a committee of Republicans – not voters, but establishment Republicans – chose Dede Scozzafava to be McHugh’s successor.

It should have been easy. Scozzafava, a moderate Republican, versus Bill Owens, a moderate Democrat. NY-23 is a notorious red zone, politically, and the GOP candidate should have won handily over the Democrat.

But then came the wildcard. Doug Hoffman, a conservative from outside New York’s 23rd, became the Conservative party’s candidate, buoyed by the heady perceived success of the tea party movement.

In an unmitigated show of hubris and ego, one by one, the superstars of the current conservative movement wanted to display their clout. Said they, “If we can proactively place someone in Congress, we’ll be taken seriously as a real force in this country.”

First to wade in these waters was of course, Sarah Palin. In a long-winded endorsement on her Facebook page, she threw a full-throated love note to the conservative, saying “Republicans and conservatives around the country are sending an important message to the Republican establishment in their outstanding grassroots support for Doug Hoffman: no more politics as usual.”

The rest of the conservative royalty was eager to join in. After Palin’s annointment, one heavyweight after another was calling for Hoffman’s victory. Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, Michele Bachmann – and ultimately John Boehner, Eric Cantor…just about every single conservative icon with the exception of Newt Gingrich was singing the praises of Doug Hoffman.

So there it was. The best and brightest of the right, the kings and queens of conservative America, the darlings of the tea party movement - making their choice crystal clear.

And this, in a historically deep red district. In an area that should have been impressed by the global attention. In a state they would normally shun would it not be for those “real Americans.”

The fix could not have been more in. The deck couldn’t have possibly been more stacked. The conclusion was beyond foregone.

And yet – the winner was Democrat Bill Owens.

Bill Owens, the first Democrat to win that district since the 19th century - winning not by a squeaker, but by a 4% margin.

The awesome power of what is supposed to be the new monolithic standard bearers of the Republican party – shot down in one night by rural voters who were ultimately put off by the sniping, the snottiness and the overbearing egos of a movement that now has to go back to the hole they crawled out of to lick their wounds.

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November 3, 2009, was a referendum on nothing. This was no shunning of Obama. This was a victory for neither Democrats or Republicans. It was an election of very little consequence in the grand scheme of things.

It was election day where, as always, the people – not the pundits and party royalty – did the deciding.

There will be those who still see it as a cataclysmic lesson to be learned by the White House. It’s nothing of the sort.

But if you need to take something big away from all this, it gets no bigger than having the anointed future of the Republican party reading the room so horribly and decisively wrong that it will forever go down in the record books as a huge loss. It should be clear that this is a party that now, more than ever, has serious, serious problems.

The GOP is facing extinction at the hands of its saviors. Instead of regrouping on the morning after seeing their affiliation torn to shreds by the fringe, they want to tell the Democrats how to run their party. This might be their dying wish – and delirium is setting in.

Democrats – especially the Blue Dogs – have nothing to fear today.

Get off the ledge, stop your crying and come back in - and listen to your constituents. You have no reason to look as foolish to the public as Sarah Palin does right now. For the second time in one year, she lost a nationally-followed election.

That does NOT look good on the resume'.

Comments

[BKLN]

Smashing the nail squarely on the head once again Hoff. Nicely done. I too was amazed to see all the headlines proclaiming dire things for the Democrats despite exit polls putting Obama in public high favor, not to mention the unflinching poignancy that you nailed about the NY23 race. If anything this election proved that the GOP is tattered and frayed, and I'm glad to see the Beck-Palin-Limbaugh-Hannity-Teabagger neanderthals handed their asses on a plate once again. If anything, this election gave me a little boost of hope about the electorate - that they are still largely unwilling to follow the fools down the wormhole.

[BKLN]

With the caveat that the scene is Maine is pretty depressing.

[Bonnie]

Best analysis I've read yet, Hoff. Thanks.

[Barry in Portland]

Absolutely correct. As someone once said, the mainstream media is like 3rd graders playing soccer.

[biggerbox]

I doubt Toucan Sam could have won in New Jersey. I'm not sure they're ready for a person of colors to be Governor.

(Captain Crunch, on the other hand, would have been a shoo-in, particularly with his military background.)

Otherwise, you are completely correct.

[cage free brown]

what resume'?
as long as she can stand up straight and smile at the camera she will be a force to be reckoned with. logic will have nothing to do with having wingnuts crammed down our throats as the backbone of America.

Pat Boone compares me to a cockroach. Glenn Beck compares me to aliens from outer space. Jon Voight thinks I have lightning bolts on my collar. ain't free speech wonderful? people who make sure these points of view rally across the media landscape sure seem to think so.

it's affirmative action for the extreme right - pure and simple. imagine if Kerry and Boxer got behind a Green Party candidate that lost a seat - it would be an entirely different croquet bat getting whopped upside our heads, wouldn't it?

the extreme right are the most important people in the world. what other lesson can we draw from this? this is just like Obama winning and all the gasbags saying "America is a center-right Nation" they were going to say it anyway - regardless.

[Barry]

I read your take on the 2009 election. I have to disagree slightly with your assessment. I watched all three election. Heck, I live in New Jersey and participated in dethroning Jon Corzine. In one respect, your are correct. For New Jersey, it really was about Corzine. Pres. Obama was a minor factor when considering who to vote for.

Here is where I disagree. You may not care, but Christie is a moderate. He won out in the Republican primary over a more conservative opponent. It took a moderate to win in New Jersey. When Christie campaigned, it was largely as a moderate. The same with McDonnell of Virginia.

As for District 23, I thank you for confirming my suspicion. So, Bill Owen is a moderate. Eh, it seems the message is becoming clear. Go Moderates! If there be any doubt, let's see what happens in 2010. I am praying that the moderate candidates take over both parties. It is time to dump the Far Left and the Far Right.